By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Investors are still rotating money into altcoins, lifting valuations for ETH, RAY, ENA, MKR and other tokens while leaving bitcoin (BTC) little changed above $100,000.
While the biggest cryptocurrency by market value is just 7% short of hitting a new high, its 30-day options-based implied or expected volatility, represented by Deribit’s DVOL index, is hovering near the lowest level since June 2024.
This type of calm usually precedes big moves. Georgii Verbitskii, a market analyst and founder of TYMIO, a crypto investor app put it best: “Options implied volatility is extremely low, the market doesn’t seem to believe in strong moves, and 1- to 3-month option pricing is still cheap. That kind of complacency often precedes a big move.”
BTC could quickly break through $115,000, Verbitskii said, noting that, “If the liquidity thesis holds — where global liquidity supports bitcoin — we could see that breakout as early as May.” Just to remind you, bitcoin hit a record high around $109,000 in January.
Still, the market faces potential headwinds. For instance, the U.S. Senate has its last opportunity to pass the bipartisan GENIUS Act, a bill introduced in February that calls for issuers to back digital currencies with safe reserves and report them monthly or deal with penalties. The bill was unable to advance in a recent vote. According to the Senate’s rules another failure will kill the bill unless all senators agree to reconsider, according to Tagus Capital.
Further, the U.S. SEC delayed a decision on Tuesday on whether to allow in-kind redemptions for BlackRock’s bitcoin exchange-traded fund while it asks for feedback.
In other news, DeFi Development Corp. purchased 172,670 SOL worth roughly $23.6 million, bringing its total Solana Treasury holdings to over $100 million.
That’s less common, with more companies running to bitcoin: An update from bitcoin-focused company River points out: “Thousands of companies across all sectors are using bitcoin to offset inflation and build up their treasury.” Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto:
- May 14: eToro (ETOR) shares begin trading on Nasdaq after being priced at $52 in IPO.
- May 14: Neo (NEO) mainnet will undergo a hard fork network upgrade (version 3.8.0) at block height 7,300,000.
- May 14: VanEck Onchain Economy ETF (NODE) starts trading on Cboe BZX exchange.
- May 16, 9:30 a.m.: Galaxy Digital Class A shares to begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol GLXY.
- May 19: CME Group is expected to launch its cash-settled XRP futures.
- May 19: Coinbase Global (COIN) will replace Discover Financial Services (DFS) in the S&P 500, effective before the opening of trading.
- Macro
- May 14, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases April inflation data.
- Inflation Rate MoM Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. 3.7%
- Inflation Rate YoY Est. 47.7% vs. Prev. 55.9%
- May 15, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics releases March retail sales data.
- Retail Sales MoM Est. 1% vs. Prev. 0.5%
- Retail Sales YoY Est. -0.5% vs. Prev. 1.5%
- May 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April producer price inflation data.
- Core PPI MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. -0.1%
- Core PPI YoY Est. 3.1% vs. Prev. 3.3%
- PPI MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. -0.4%
- PPI YoY Est. 2.5% vs. Prev. 2.7%
- May 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Census Bureau releases April retail sales data.
- Retail Sales MoM Est. 0% vs. Prev. 1.5%
- Retail Sales YoY Prev. 4.9%
- May 15, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ended May 10.
- Initial Jobless Claims Est. 230K vs. Prev. 228K
- May 15, 8:40 a.m.: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will deliver a speech (“Framework Review”) in Washington. Livestream link.
- May 14, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases April inflation data.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Uniswap DAO is voting on a proposal to fund the integration of Uniswap V4 on Ethereum in Oku and add Unichain on Oku in a bid to enhance Uniswap’s reach and liquidity migration to V4. Voting ends May 18,
- May 14, 11:30 a.m.: Jupiter to hold a J.U.P Rally.
- May 15, 11 a.m.: Yield Guild Games to host a Q1 2025 community update Ask Me Anything (AMA) session.
- May 15, 10 a.m.: Moca Network to host a Discord townhall session discussing network updates.
- May 21, 6 p.m.: Theta Network to host an Ask Me Anything session in a livestream.
- Unlocks
- May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $23.53 million.
- May 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.09% of its circulating supply worth $14.22 million.
- May 16: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.35% of its circulating supply worth $17.8 million.
- May 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $39.06 million.
- May 17: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.4% of its circulating supply worth $42.84 million.
- Token Launches
- May 15: RIZE (RIZE) to list on Kraken.
- May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.
Conferences
CoinDesk’s Consensus is taking place in Toronto on May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK and save 15% on passes.
- May 14-16: CoinDesk’s Consensus 2025 (Toronto)
- May 19-25: Dutch Blockchain Week (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
- May 20-22: Avalanche Summit London
- May 20-22: Seamless Middle East Fintech 2025 (Dubai)
- May 21-22: Crypto Expo Dubai
- May 21-22: Cryptoverse Conference (Warsaw, Poland)
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- Synthetix is considering buying Derive, an Ethereum-based options trading platform, in a $27 million token-swap deal, absorbing Derive’s treasury, codebase and operations.
- Derive holders would receive 27 SNX tokens for each DRV. The tokens face a three-month lockup and nine-month vesting period.
- Some members of the Derive community expressed dissatisfaction, citing unfavorable valuations and lack of benefits.
- Derive, originally Lyra, was spun out from Synthetix in 2021 but diverged by ending sUSD support and launching independent products, making this a rare DeFi reacquisition.
- Elsewhere, “Launch Coin on Believe” (LAUNCHCOIN), formerly Pasternak, surged 130% in the past 24 hours, aligning with the Clout platform’s transition into token issuance platform Believe in a move that has boosted visibility and investor interest.
- The token had over $100 million in trading volume in the past 24 hours, up from a $5 million average over the past week.
- Believe’s platform gained rapid traction since the weekend, attracting attention for its low-barrier model that lets Web2 and traditional companies offer tokens for fundraising.
- These tokens are inherently valueless, however, representing no equity rights, and a strict policy by Believe that does not allow profit sharing with tokenholders.
Derivatives Positioning
- Funding rates are green for most major tokens, except BCH, implying a bullish positioning in the perpetual futures market.
- Open interest-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) paints a mixed picture, with positive values for XMR, TRX, UNI, ETH, AVAX and SOL suggesting net buying pressure. The rest of the majors have a negative 24-hour CVD.
- Block flows on Deribit featured long positions in BTC calls and short positions in ETH puts, both hinting at bullish market sentiment.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 1.18% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $103,485.75 (24hrs: -0.07%)
- ETH is down 2.81% at $2,608.56 (24hrs: +5.09%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.15% at 3,329.26 (24hrs: +2.51%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 5 bps at 3.12%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.0051% (5.6316% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.63% at 100.37
- Gold is down 0.31% at $3,234.30/oz
- Silver is down 0.38% at $32.80/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed -0.14% at 38,128.13
- Hang Seng closed +2.3% at 23,640.65
- FTSE is down 0.13% at 8,591.52
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.56% at 5,386.05
- DJIA closed on Tuesday -0.64% at 42,140.43
- S&P 500 closed +0.72% at 5,886.55
- Nasdaq closed +1.61% at 19,010.08
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.33% at 25,616.86
- S&P 40 Latin America closed +2.41% at 2,640.68
- U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is down 2 bps at 4.45%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 5,900.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 21,266.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 42,206.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 62.39 (+0.34%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02509 (-2.49%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 865 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $55.37
- Total Fees: 6.27 BTC / $650,612.82
- CME Futures Open Interest: 145,350 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 31.9 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 9.04%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows ether’s rally has stalled at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
- A breakout would confirm the onset of the bull market, potentially drawing more traders to the market.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Tuesday at $421.61 (+4.13%), down 2.29% at $411.96 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $256.9 (+23.97%), down 1.38% at $253.36
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $29.39 (+3.52%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.37 (+2.63%), down 1.53% at $16.12
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $9.06 (+4.14%), down 1.1% at $8.96
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.24 (+3.64%), down 0.68% at $10.17
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10 (+3.95%), down 2.4% at $9.76
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $17.20 (+5.26%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $36.70 (+5.34%), down 0.93% at $36.36
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $42.04 (-22.58%), unchanged in pre-market
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs:
- Daily net flows: -$91.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $41.05 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $13.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.48 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.44 million
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- The chart shows BTC’s spot volume delta, which measures the net difference between buying and selling trade volumes.
- The metric has flipped positive, confirming that the move above $100,000 is backed by real demand in the spot market.
While You Were Sleeping
- Synthetix Considers Purchase of Options Platform Derive in $27M Token-Swap Deal (CoinDesk): A proposed 27:1 SNX-to-DRV token conversion with a lockup schedule requires approval from both communities and has sparked backlash from Derive users over valuation and unclear benefits.
- Ether Nears $2.7K, Dogecoin Zooms 9% as Crypto Market Remains Cheery (CoinDesk): A broad altcoin rebound is losing steam as traders brace for profit-taking, with bitcoin’s momentum clouded by macro headwinds, including a firmer dollar and revived trade tensions.
- Dollar Steadies With Trade Talks in Frame After Sliding on Muted U.S. Inflation (Reuters): Commonwealth Bank analysts expect the dollar index to rise 2%–3% in the coming weeks after the U.S.-China tariff truce, but see no return to early-year highs near 108.50.
- U.S. Scraps ‘AI Diffusion’ Rule in Revamp of Biden-Era Chip Curbs (The Wall Street Journal): The Commerce Department removed export curbs it said harmed U.S. innovation and diplomatic relations, boosting AI chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD by expanding overseas sales.
- Standard Chartered Will Provide Banking Services for FalconX to Enhance Cross-Border Settlement (CoinDesk): FalconX will gain access to new currency pairs and global banking rails, supporting its effort to link digital assets with traditional finance for institutional clients.
- Exporters ‘Shocked and Elated’ as China Trade Cranks Back Into Gear (Financial Times): Chinese exporters anticipate a near-term jump in shipments to the U.S., but are still diversifying abroad, viewing the tariff truce as only a short-term reprieve.
In the Ether
